If you're planning to head out of town for the holidays, you're not alone. The American Automobile Association predicts this year will be the third busiest for holiday travel since it started tracking the numbers in 2000 - with nearly 113 million Americans planning to travel to end the year.
AAA Holiday Travel Forecast
Numbers this year won't return to pre-pandemic levels, but they'll be close. AAA says it estimates that 112.7 million people will take a trip at least 50 miles away from home between December 23 to January 2. That’s an increase of 3.6 million people over last year and closing in on pre-pandemic numbers.
“This year, travel time will be extended due to Christmas Day and New Year’s Day falling on Sundays,” says Paula Twidale, AAA’s Senior Vice President of Travel. “With hybrid work schedules, we are seeing more people take long weekends to travel because they can work remotely at their destination and be more flexible with the days they depart and return.”
Car
The most popular mode of travel as expected will be by road. AAA predicts that nearly 102 million Americans will drive to their holiday destinations. That number is up 2 million compared to 2021 - even with our roller coaster gas prices. This year's number on par with 2018 -- but shy of 2019's record-setting108 million.
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Airplane
Airplane travel will be up 14 percent this year over last. AAA expects nearly 7.2 million Americans expected to fly, creating packed airports. Researchers say demand for flights has surged despite higher airline ticket prices. AAA forecasts the number of people taking holiday flights this year will come close to matching 2019's 7.3 million number.
“If the distance is not reasonable to drive, more people are taking to the air to maximize the time spent at their destination,” Twidale adds. “Conversely, if the travel distances are reasonable and more than one or two people in the household are taking the trip, it may be more cost-effective to drive rather than buy multiple air tickets, rent a car, and spend too much money before the fun even begins.”
Other
AAA estimates travel by bus, rail, and cruise ship will rise to 3.6 million this holiday season, a 23% increase from last year and nearly 94% of 2019’s volume.
Busiest Road Travel Times
If you're traveling by road, you'll want to avoid doing so on the day before Christmas or on the 27th or 28th as well as January 2nd. That's when INRIX predicts the most road congestion. In major metros, especially in Los Angeles and New York City, drivers could experience double the typical delays. Nationwide, we could all see travel times up to 25% longer.
“With pre-pandemic levels of travelers hitting the road this holiday, drivers must be prepared for delays in and around major metro areas, with Tuesday, December 27 expected to be the nation’s worst day to travel,” says Bob Pishue, transportation analyst at INRIX. “Our advice is to avoid traveling during peak commuting hours. If schedules allow, leave bright and early or after the afternoon commute.”
Best & Worst Times to Travel by Car
|
Date |
Worst travel time |
Best travel time |
|
12/23/22 |
4:00-7:00 PM |
Before 2:00 PM, After 8:00 PM |
|
12/24/22 |
12:00-6:00 PM |
Before 11:00 AM, After 7:00 PM |
|
12/25/22 – Minimal Traffic Expected |
||
|
12/26/22 |
2:00-6:00 PM |
Before 12:00 PM, After 7:00 PM |
|
12/27/22 |
3:00-7:00 PM |
Before 2:00 PM, After 8:00 PM |
|
12/28/22 |
3:00-7:00 PM |
Before 2:00 PM, After 8:00 PM |
|
12/29/22 |
3:00-7:00 PM |
Before 2:00 PM, After 8:00 PM |
|
12/30/22 |
3:00-7:00 PM |
Before 2:00 PM, After 8:00 PM |
|
12/31/22 – Minimal Traffic Expected |
||
|
1/1/23 – Minimal Traffic Expected |
||
|
1/2/23 |
4:00-7:00 PM |
Before 3:00 PM, After 8:00 PM |
Source: INRIX
Peak Congestion by Metro
|
Metro |
Corridor |
Peak congestion period |
Compared to Typical |
|
Atlanta |
I-75 North, GA-17 to I-675 |
1/2/2023, 5:15-6:15 PM |
65% |
|
Boston |
I-93 South, Albany St to MA-24 |
12/28/2022, 3:00-5:00 PM |
47% |
|
Chicago |
I-290 East, Mannheim Rd to Paulina St |
12/27/2022, 4:45-6:45 PM |
75% |
|
Detroit |
I-94 West, Gratiot Ave to Michigan Ave |
1/2/2023, 12:00-2:00 PM |
27% |
|
Houston |
I-69 North, I-610 to TX-10 |
12/27/2022, 3:45-5:45 PM |
36% |
|
Los Angeles |
I-5 South, Colorado St to Florence Ave |
12/27/2022, 5:30-7:30 PM |
95% |
|
New York |
I-278 West, I-495 to 6th Ave |
12/27/2022, 3:45-5:45 PM |
112% |
|
San Francisco |
I-80 East, Maritime St to San Pablo Dam Rd |
12/28/2022, 5:00-7:00 PM |
50% |
|
Seattle |
I-5 South, WA-18 to WA-7 |
12/28/2022, 4:00-6:00 PM |
62% |
|
Washington DC |
I-95 South, MD-212 to Central Ave |
12/27/2022, 9:30-11:30 AM |
68% |
Source: INRIX
Expected Traffic by Metro & Corridor
|
Metro |
Corridor |
Day |
Increase over Typical |
|
Atlanta |
I-75 North, Exit 205 to Exit 227 |
Monday, Jan 02, 2023 |
65% |
|
I-85 South, Exit 91 to Exit 248A |
Monday, Jan 02, 2023 |
65% |
|
|
I-85 Clockwise, Exit 29 to Exit 46 |
Monday, Jan 02, 2023 |
41% |
|
|
I-285 Counterclockwise, Exit 27 to Exit 10B |
Monday, Jan 02, 2023 |
41% |
|
|
US-19 North, Exit 4B to Exit 10 |
Monday, Jan 02, 2023 |
25% |
|
|
Detroit |
I-94 West, Exit 219 to Exit 210 |
Monday, Jan 02, 2023 |
27% |
|
US-23 North, Exit 53 to Exit 60A |
Friday, Dec 23, 2022 |
22% |
|
|
I-75 North, Exit 59 to Exit 67 |
Friday, Dec 23, 2022 |
18% |
|
|
I-696 West, Exit 10 to Exit 1 |
Monday, Jan 02, 2023 |
15% |
|
|
I-96 West, Exit 170 to Exit 162 |
Friday, Dec 23, 2022 |
11% |
|
|
Houston |
I-69 North, Exit 123 to Exit 132B |
Tuesday, Dec 27, 2022 |
36% |
|
I-10 West, Exit 795 to Exit 787 |
Monday, Jan 02, 2023 |
26% |
|
|
I-610 East, Exit 4A to Exit 20 |
Monday, Jan 02, 2023 |
25% |
|
|
I-45 South, Exit 51 to Exit 40B |
Tuesday, Dec 27, 2022 |
23% |
|
|
I-69 South, Exit 136 to Exit 115A |
Tuesday, Dec 27, 2022 |
17% |
|
|
LA |
I-5 South, Exit 142 to Exit 124 |
Tuesday, Dec 27, 2022 |
95% |
|
I-405 South, Exit 57 to Exit 45 |
Tuesday, Dec 27, 2022 |
64% |
|
|
I-10 East, Exit 1B to Exit 16A |
Monday, Jan 02, 2023 |
57% |
|
|
I-405 South, Exit 50 to I5 |
Tuesday, Dec 27, 2022 |
51% |
|
|
I-10 East, Exit 19 to Exit 38 |
Tuesday, Dec 27, 2022 |
51% |
|
|
San Francisco |
I-80 East, Exit 8A to Exit 18 |
Wednesday, Dec 28, 2022 |
50% |
|
I-80 West, Exit 13 to Exit 1A |
Wednesday, Dec 28, 2022 |
48% |
|
|
I-580 East, Exit 34 to Exit 65 |
Tuesday, Dec 27, 2022 |
37% |
|
|
I-680 East, Exit 8 to Exit 50 |
Tuesday, Dec 27, 2022 |
22% |
|
|
US-101 North, Exit 439 to Exit 451 |
Wednesday, Dec 28, 2022 |
21% |
|
|
Seattle |
I-5 South, Exit 142B to Exit 133 |
Wednesday, Dec 28, 2022 |
62% |
|
I-405 South, Exit 18 to Exit 6 |
Wednesday, Dec 28, 2022 |
38% |
|
|
I-5 South, Exit 182 to Exit 164 |
Wednesday, Dec 28, 2022 |
37% |
|
|
I-5 North, Exit 168B to Exit 182 |
Wednesday, Dec 28, 2022 |
27% |
|
|
I-405 North, Exit 2 to Exit 9 |
Monday, Jan 02, 2023 |
24% |
|
|
Washington DC |
I-95 South, Exit 170A to Exit 160 |
Thursday, Dec 29, 2022 |
68% |
|
I-95 South, Exit 29B to Exit 15 |
Tuesday, Dec 27, 2022 |
29% |
|
|
I-495 Counterclockwise, Exit 27 to Exit 45 |
Monday, Dec 26, 2022 |
27% |
|
|
I-270 East, Exit 1 to Exit 32 |
Monday, Jan 02, 2023 |
16% |
|
|
I-95 North, Exit 170A to Exit 22A |
Tuesday, Dec 27, 2022 |
14% |
Source: INRIX
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