A September 16 fire in the hot mill section of Novelis’s aluminum fabrication plant in Oswego, New York, has disrupted roughly 40 percent of U.S. automotive aluminum supply, shaking the entire auto industry. The blaze caused major damage to the facility and its supporting infrastructure, forcing the company to halt operations on key lines until at least early 2026.
Novelis supplies aluminum sheet to nearly every major automaker, including Ford, Stellantis, and General Motors. The shutdown has sent ripples through Detroit’s manufacturing base, with Ford bearing the heaviest losses.
Ford’s reliance on aluminum, especially in its best-selling F-Series pickups and large SUVs, makes it particularly vulnerable. Analysts estimate the production hit could cost Ford between $500 million and $1 billion in lost earnings. The company is scrambling to secure alternate suppliers, but the domestic aluminum market has little excess capacity, and importing material is expensive due to tariffs as high as 50 percent.
At Ford’s Dearborn Truck Assembly Plant, F-150 production has been cut by more than half, to about 530 units per day through late October. The Rouge Electric Vehicle Center, where the F-150 Lightning is built, has been idled indefinitely. The Kentucky Truck Plant, home of the Ford Expedition and Lincoln Navigator, has been paused for at least two weeks. Ford’s stock fell roughly six percent after the disruption was made public.
The company has formed a special task force to manage its aluminum supply, shift materials among vehicle lines, and coordinate with suppliers to mitigate the damage. But the stakes are high: the F-Series remains Ford’s single most profitable product, and even temporary losses ripple directly through the company’s bottom line.
Stellantis, while less dependent on aluminum overall, is also feeling the strain. The automaker has idled its Warren Truck Assembly Plant in Michigan, which builds the Jeep Wagoneer and Grand Wagoneer, for about three weeks. Launch plans for the 2026 Grand Wagoneer have been pushed back until at least late November as Stellantis prioritizes its aluminum allocation toward Ram 1500 pickups. Tuesday, Reuters cited a Bloomberg News report that said production will stay idle until November 3rd.
Because the Ram’s body uses less aluminum than Ford’s F-150, Stellantis has been able to shield its truck line from the worst of the disruption. Still, delays in full-size SUV output could dent earnings in the fourth quarter. The company has said it is working closely with suppliers but offered few details on long-term contingency plans.
Industry analysts warn that Novelis’s outage highlights the fragility of domestic aluminum supply. U.S. rolling mills are operating near capacity, leaving little slack for sudden disruptions. Automakers turning to imports face higher costs due to tariffs and shipping constraints, further tightening margins.
Sub-tier suppliers, such as stamping houses and body panel fabricators, are also at risk if production slowdowns continue. Some may be forced to reduce operations or furlough workers until assembly lines resume normal schedules. Automakers are expected to prioritize higher-margin trims and models, meaning lower-cost versions could face longer delivery times.
The shortage could also influence pricing. If production lags into 2026, dealers may see tighter inventories on key models, putting upward pressure on transaction prices even as consumer demand moderates.
For now, the focus remains on rebuilding capacity. Novelis says it hopes to partially restart some operations by the first quarter of 2026, though full recovery may take longer. That timeline could extend if equipment replacements or regulatory reviews cause further delays.
The fire’s broader impact underscores how concentrated aluminum production has become—and how dependent automakers are on single sources for lightweight materials. For Ford, it’s a costly reminder that innovation carries its own risks. For Stellantis, it’s a warning to diversify before the next supply shock hits.
Photo: 2024 Ford F-150 Assembly at Dearborn Truck Plant Credit: Ford.