U.S. electric vehicle registrations surged to a record level in September as shoppers raced to claim the expiring $7,500 federal tax credit, only to see demand fall off a cliff a month later. The dramatic swing highlights how sensitive EV sales remain to incentives, according to new data from S&P Global Mobility and a sales forecast from Cox Automotive.
As reported in Automotive News, S&P Global Mobility said new EV registrations hit 168,468 in September, up 51 percent from a year earlier and the highest monthly total on record. Because Tesla and several other automakers don’t publish actual sales numbers, registration data cuts through the BS. The late-month rush pushed EV market share to 12.4 percent, up 3.7 percentage points from September 2024.
Analysts attributed the spike to shoppers pulling forward purchases before the tax break disappeared on Sept. 30. Some automakers were ready with strong EV inventory, and the brands that leaned in saw the biggest benefit. Chevrolet, Ford, Hyundai, and Volvo either doubled or nearly doubled their registrations from a year ago. Cadillac and Porsche posted even greater percentage gains with newly introduced models helping drive volume.
But the glow didn’t last long. Cox Automotive estimated that October EV deliveries plunged nearly 50 percent from the September peak to about 74,800 vehicles. Automakers had already reduced EV supply heading into October, anticipating the slowdown that usually follows the end of a major incentive program.
Tesla once again topped the charts in September, though its results were mixed across models. Registrations rose 33 percent year-over-year to 71,606 vehicles. The Model Y remained the undisputed leader, soaring 76 percent to 48,806 registrations and accounting for nearly a third of all EV registrations for the month. The Model 3, however, slid 14 percent to 16,666 as buyers continued shifting toward the more versatile Model Y.
Tesla’s Cybertruck also saw a decline. Even with the federal handout, September registrations fell 15 percent to 3,714, pushing its nine-month total to 21,197. That’s slightly behind the Ford F-150 Lightning at 23,894 over the same period. Even with its overall September gains, Tesla’s total EV share slipped to 42.5 percent, down 5.5 points from last year.
Chevrolet finished second in September with a 92 percent increase to 14,230 EVs, led by the Equinox EV at 8,717. Ford ranked third with registrations for the Mustang Mach-E rising 112 percent to 8,906 and the F-150 Lightning climbing 103 percent to 4,305. Hyundai placed fourth, up 122 percent to 11,830, thanks largely to the Ioniq 5 posting 9,372 registrations. Cadillac rounded out the top five at 7,897, nearly triple its year-earlier volume as the Vistiq and Optiq hit the market.
Several brands with a single EV offering were on the losing end of September’s frenzy. Toyota’s bZ4X dropped 88 percent to 181 registrations, Lexus’ RZ fell 68 percent, and Subaru’s Solterra declined 48 percent. Acura’s ZDX slipped 63 percent to 404, with the brand preparing to discontinue the model after one year. Nissan declined 59 percent to 1,258 and plans to pause U.S. sales of the Ariya for 2026.
As the dust settles, analysts expect hybrids to pick up steam, but I’m not so sure. They do deliver better alignment with consumer demand and help automakers minimize losses associated with selling EVs at thinner margins. Toyota, already well ahead in hybrid volume, appears especially well positioned to take advantage.
Through the first nine months of 2025, EV registrations rose 14 percent to 1.05 million, representing 8.5 percent of the light-vehicle market. Total light-vehicle registrations rose 4.6 percent to 12.35 million over the same period, according to S&P Global Mobility.
And here’s my take: The wild swing from September to October tells you everything about today’s EV landscape. Shoppers will respond to a good deal, no question, but take the deal away and demand cools fast. That’s not a judgment on EVs themselves; it’s a reminder that the industry is still finding its footing. Hybrids continue to look like the bridge most buyers are comfortable crossing right now, and Toyota’s long game may end up looking smarter than ever. Meanwhile, the EV market will keep marching on. But it’ll do it with ups and downs until price, range and charging convenience get closer to what mainstream shoppers expect. Even with the surge, one must wonder given some of the really small sales numbers below, how many billions of dollars have been lost collectively by the majority of the automakers. It truly boggles the mind.
September 2025 U.S. Registrations Of Electric Vehicles By Brand:
Photo: 2025 Chevrolet Equinox EV. CarPro.