Everybody loves the newest thing. Automakers know it, which is why a completely redesigned vehicle gets the big advertising campaign, the dramatic television commercials and all the attention on the showroom floor. New styling, a new interior, bigger screens, more technology and maybe a new engine or transmission can make the outgoing model look old almost overnight.
But if you're shopping for a used car, I want you to consider doing exactly the opposite of what everybody else is doing.
Instead of looking for the first year of the newest generation, take a serious look at the last year or two of the generation it replaced.
It may be the best version of that vehicle the manufacturer ever built.
I've been telling people for years that I'm not overly cautious about buying the first model year after a complete redesign. That doesn't mean every first-year vehicle is troublesome or isn’t, because plenty of them are excellent. But when an automaker redesigns a vehicle from the ground up, a lot can change at once. There can be a new platform, new engine, new transmission, new electrical architecture, new infotainment system and a long list of new technology.
No matter how many millions of miles of testing manufacturers perform, customers eventually become the largest test fleet in the world.
Problems appear. Manufacturers learn. Suppliers make changes. Software gets updated. Parts are revised. Assembly procedures improve. Technical service bulletins are issued. Sometimes a component that looked perfectly good during development doesn't perform as expected after hundreds of thousands of vehicles have accumulated real-world miles.
Then something important happens that doesn't receive nearly as much publicity as the original redesign:
The vehicle gets better.
Consumer Reports has noted this phenomenon in its reliability research. As a vehicle moves through its model cycle, manufacturers often identify and correct problems, and later model years can prove more reliable than earlier versions of the same generation.
That makes perfect sense to me.
Think about an automobile that's been in production for five or six years. By the final couple of years, the assembly plant has built hundreds of thousands of them. The workers know the vehicle. Suppliers have been producing the components for years. Engineering has accumulated enormous amounts of field data. Warranty claims have shown the manufacturer where the trouble spots are.
That doesn't guarantee the final model year will be trouble-free, but I'd rather have all that experience working in my favor than against me.
There's another advantage: You know much more about the vehicle.
When an all-new model arrives, nobody can tell you with certainty what it will be like at 100,000 miles because virtually none of them have traveled 100,000 miles yet. Five years later, there is a track record. Owners have reported their experiences. Repair shops have seen the common problems. Recalls and service campaigns are known. Reliability data are much more meaningful.
In other words, some of the mystery is gone.
There can also be a tremendous value advantage.
When the redesigned model arrives, the previous generation suddenly looks older, even though mechanically there may be absolutely nothing wrong with it. Used-car buyers are attracted to the newer body style and updated interior, and that can create an opportunity for somebody who cares more about reliability and value than having the newest-looking vehicle in the neighborhood.
I've seen this happen countless times in the car business. A vehicle doesn't suddenly become a bad car because the manufacturer changed the headlights, dashboard and sheet metal on the new one.
Sometimes the opposite is true.
The outgoing vehicle may have a proven engine and transmission that have been refined for years, while the replacement introduces an entirely new powertrain. The older one may have physical controls that are easier to operate, while the new model moves everything onto a touchscreen. The new one may have more sophisticated electronics and additional features, but additional complexity also means additional things that can potentially fail as the vehicle ages.
And here's another little secret about the final years of a model cycle: manufacturers frequently add equipment.
As competition increases and a vehicle ages, features that were once optional sometimes become standard. Trim levels get shuffled. Appearance packages appear. Safety equipment gets added. Manufacturers have to keep an aging vehicle competitive until its replacement arrives.
You can occasionally find a late-production version of the older generation that is better equipped than an earlier one and substantially less expensive than the redesigned model sitting beside it.
There are, however, some cautions.
I would never buy a used vehicle simply because it's the last year of a generation. Some vehicles have known engine, transmission or electrical problems that were never completely resolved. Occasionally manufacturers introduce a new engine or major technology late in a model cycle, which eliminates much of the advantage I'm talking about.
You still have to do your homework.
Look at the reliability history of the specific year, engine and transmission you're considering. Check for recalls. Get a vehicle-history report. Have the vehicle inspected by a qualified technician before buying it. Maintenance history matters enormously, too. The best model year in the world can become a terrible used car if the previous owner neglected it.
Mileage matters, but condition matters more than many people realize. I'd rather buy a meticulously maintained 60,000-mile vehicle with service records than a neglected 35,000-mile example simply because the number on the odometer is lower.
And don't forget to drive both generations.
You may decide the redesign really is worth the additional money. Perhaps the newer model has safety technology you want, dramatically better fuel economy, more room or features you'll use every day. If so, great. At least you've made the comparison.
But don't dismiss the older one simply because it looks like yesterday's model.
If I were shopping for a three- or four-year-old used vehicle today, one of the first things I'd research is when that particular generation began and ended. Then I'd pay especially close attention to vehicles built during its final couple of years.
They won't have the newest grille.
They may have a smaller screen.
Your neighbor may not know you bought a different car.
That's OK.
Because while everybody else is chasing the first year of the next big thing, you may be buying the version that benefited from five years of somebody else finding the problems.
In the car business, newer doesn't always mean better.
Sometimes the vehicle they just stopped building is the one they finally got exactly right.